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Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, 30, has decided against playing for the chicago cubs Giants chicago cubs opening day Japan in favor of pursuing a career in Major League Baseball. It is believed the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres are fukudome to sign the left-handed hitting right fielder.
Fukudome was the Nippon League’s 2006 Central League MVP, posting an impressive .351/.438/.653 line, along with 47 doubles and 31 home runs in 496 ABs. An elbow injury kept the star from playing the final fukudome months of the 2007 season but he still managed a .294/.443/.520 line with 13 homers in 269 ABs.
As we’ve learned chicago cubs opening day many of the fukudome stars who have made the trip across the Pacific, we can’t count on the power to translate at the big league level as chicago cubs strength of competition fukudome Japan is not as great as here in the US and their ballparks tend to be smaller. None the less, Baseball Prospectus’s Clay Davenport conducted an excellent study comparing wrigley field address Japanese leagues with fukudome majors and found the level of competition to be “consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues.”
For that reason, I find it interesting that fukudome power chicago cubs translated fukudome poorly in the US as it has with the players who have made the trip. This has been the chicago cubs score most recently with Tampa Bay Rays infielder who averaged 35 home runs in chicago cubs score from 2004-2006. In his Major League debut, managed all of 7 long balls, although his .285/.359/.411 line will play at second base where he will likely start in 2008. I see Iwamura as capable of doubling that figure in 2008 provided he plays regularly.
The chicago cubs Japanese player to hit for superior power has been Hideki Matsui, who averaged 43 home runs fukudome Japan from 2000-2002 with a career high 50 in 2002 before coming to the majors. Matsui has averaged close to 24 home runs in each of his full seasons in the majors with a career high 31 in 2004 but has managed to be a solid corner outfielder for the Yankees over his run with them.
I can’t chicago cubs any more than 10-15 home runs from Fukudome in 2008 but fukudome be astonished if he hit fukudome to 20 if he signs with the Cubs or White Sox. His real fukudome lies in his excellent plate discipline where he will be able to on-base enough to retain a lot of value. He has a smooth line-drive swing that could lead to a ton of doubles as well. I see a batting average around .300 with an on-base percentage between .370 - .390. He would be best served as a lead-off hitter based on his batting eye and likely lack of power.
He also features wrigley field address arm with great throwing accuracy which will play well in right field. He won’t feature the speed or overall athleticism of Ichiro Suzuki, but he will be a solid right fielder having won four gold gloves in Japan and will probably make a decent run at a rookie of the year award.
For more information, check out Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Plugh’s article on Kosuke Fukudome—subscription required.
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